- Admiral Group
- 10 March 2026 11:07:20
Source: Sharecast
UBS estimated that the UK motor insurance market has a high probability of pricing in excess of inflation over the coming six months. "While industry data points suggest pricing is currently around inflationary trend, Admiral has raised prices year-to-date in excess," UBS said.
"Four drivers that cause us to be more optimistic are: 1. Admiral's year-to-date action, 2. peer commentary at full-year results, 3. Monthly CPI data and 4. EY industry forecast margins."
UBS noted that Admiral's price-to-earnings multiple has a strong positive correlation with UK motor insurance pricing and said it expects this to continue.
"We are only forecasting for a minor period of price in excess of inflation for Admiral in 2026, and each 1ppt is worth circa 4% to forward EPS."
UBS also said the company’s 2025 result was a landmark. It noted that aggregate profits from UK Home, Travel & Pet, Europe and Admiral Money were close to £100mn, and these are now expected to more than double by 2028.
"This should lead to a group share of profit of circa 15%, and likely to grow still," it said.
UBS said that profit emergence from beyond UK motor insurance has long been the aspiration, but now management have confidence in guidance.
"This now totals 12% of our valuation," the bank said. "In addition, the Internal Solvency model details should provide a one-off catalyst over the next 12 months which we estimate could result in an additional 1.5- 3.0% of market cap being distributed to shareholders, not in our forecasts."
At 1105 GMT, the shares were up 3% at 3,214p.