- Anglo American
- 09 March 2026 11:20:03
Source: Sharecast
It noted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a circa 40% fall for European metals & mining equities in 2022, as global growth and tighter monetary policy absorbed the effects of the energy price shock.
JPM said recent events in the Middle East introduce similar risks. These risks are not adequately discounted into industrial metals prices - which are mostly unchanged since the start of the conflict - and European mining & steel equities, where the bank forecasts another more than 10% downside risk, despite the sector being MSCI Europe’s weakest last week.
"We reverse our previously positive view on EMEA Mining & Steel and turn negative, as we introduce a downside scenario for copper ($9,500/t in 2026/27) and iron ore ($90/t) as our new base case," JPM said.
The brunt of the bank's downgrades are in copper and steel. It cut Anglo American to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’, while Antofagasta was downgraded to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’. Their target prices were cut to 2,800p from 3,780p and to 3,200p from 4,400p, respectively.
The bank also cut Rio Tinto, to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’, and reduced the price target to 7,220p from 7,840p.
JPM said it was a good time to add gold equities. "Our previous analysis shows gold typically declines in the first 1-2 weeks of a market drawdown before rallying due to its safe-haven status," it noted.
The bank said gold equities are the only miners where it sees significant upside risk to consensus earnings and its top picks remain Fresnillo in EMEA and AngloGold for investors with global reach.
JPM said its key ‘overweights’ are aluminium and Norsk Hydro. "Aluminium is the only industrial metal directly impacted, since the Middle East represents about 7% of global supply," it said.
"JPM Commodities Research estimate at least 2.4Mtpa (circa 3% of global output) has already announced curtailments or force majeure. The companies in our coverage with the highest aluminium exposure are Rio Tinto…and pure-play Norsk Hydro which we retain at ‘overweight’ with a NOK 103/share December 2027 price target."